Gilead likely aquisition targets

[grandcaddy]

www.bidnessetc.com/58857-gilead-sciences-inc-is-ready-to-acquire-here-are-the-likely-targets/

[qbeing1010]

Would it be possible for GILD to buy ARC-520/21, and not acquire all of ARWR?

[grandcaddy]

They could license ARC-520/521 for a fee plus a percentage of sales. I'm guessing $2-4 B and 15-25%. with 200-500 M up front and payments along the way to approval. ARWR might request the rights for the US.

[labwd1]

Nice article.  Thanks for posting.

[mudbug021]

Dec 12, 2015 16:47:50 GMT -5 qbeing1010 said:

Would it be possible for GILD to buy ARC-520/21, and not acquire all of ARWR?

I cannot emphasis enough, without DPC RNAi doesnt work as efficiently. 


What needs to be understood, eventually another company will develop a delivery system as good or better then DPC. Until then, ride the wave. 

[Think2Succeed]

Dec 12, 2015 16:47:50 GMT -5 qbeing1010 said:

Would it be possible for GILD to buy ARC-520/21, and not acquire all of ARWR?

Like grandcaddy said, it is possible but ARWR will still retain some royalties and milestone payments. However, personally I view Roche as the more likely partner given their familiarity with DPC and their proven interest in the RNAi field (unlike GILD). Also don't forget that Roche has the right of first negotiation as well. If Gilead is going to get involved with ARWR it will probably be for the whole company rather than a partnership in my opinion.

Mud,

I agree that DPC plays a crucial role in making the RNAi work but we shouldn't worry about other companies developing a better delivery platform at this point. Remember that Roche invested serious money and time to improve DPC (and that is a high barrier to entry for many companies already) then we also have ARWR scientists constantly working on improving DPC. Even if another company comes out with a better delivery and they get around DPC patents then they still need patents for individual targets like HBV and even if they get that too, ARWR will be well ahead of that company for the indications Arrowhead is already pursuing. The only danger would be many years from now for targets that ARWR hasn't already started clinical trials (by the time that improved platforms is discovered). But if you're a big pharma why reinvent the wheel when it's already available and is called DPC ? They will probably prefer to partner or acquire ARWR.

T2S

[grandcaddy]

another thing to remember, when ARC-520 gets approved for sale in 2018-2020. the licensee will be paying a royalty to ARWR if its $4b in sales and ARWR gets only 15%  that's $600m/year.  That's $9.67 EPS at a 10 PE $97.00 PPS at a 20PE that's $194.  only 3 years out.