ARWR 2015 in numbers

[Think2Succeed]

Open price in 2015: 7.38
Close price in 2015: 6.15 (-18%)

52Wk Low 4.35 on 08/24/15 (intraday)
52Wk High 9.35 on 09/24/15 (intraday) Note: It also touched 10 in pre-market
Last 2015 price: 6.15 or -34.29% from 52wks low and +41.38% from 52wks high

IBB performance in 2015 was +12%

So 2015 was a bad year for ARWR investors no matter how anyone tries to paint it...While the progress on the science front was good that wasn't reflected in the share price...let's hope that 2016 is going to deliver on the share price as that to us as investors is the most important metric.

TS

[tmak]

while 2015 was not a good year for arwr in terms of share price, 2015 was certainly a good year if you were a believer in the long term story of arrowhead.  since the sp was suppressed for much of 2015,  arwr longs had a great opportunity to accumulate shares.  

meanwhile the data points and partnerships rendered in 2015 further de-risked the investment.  

these included:

novartis partnership/targets outside the liver
chimp data
subcutaneous administration
pipeline additions
monarch study
patents
superb safety profile


meanwhile arrowhead's closest rivals, abus and alny stumbled in arwr's wake.

i will personally add to my position before a partnership or fc's are divulged.  an investment in arrowhead in  the sixes may well double, or triple as wall street discovers what arrowhead longs
have known/seen all along.

[Think2Succeed]

tmak I agree with everything you said but I'm still disappointed with the share price, the reason being exactly the progress you talked about....and I'm not in the camp who is glad that the share price was depressed for an entire year and that provided me with the opportunity to accumulate shares...I don't need a full year of opportunities...I watch this stock every day so 2-3 dips a year would suffice for me and probably for most investors to accumulate cheap shares. The problem is that for a company with this potential (and already trading at ridiculous valuations) , with so much progress in 2015 and being part of an index with a healthy 12% gain the share price should have been a lot higher....but it is not...and that clearly is disappointing for me. In 2014 1 log KD was the holy grail then we achieved more than that in 2015 yet the market hasn't reacted positively despite all of us being convinced prior to AD that if that happened the share price would increase significantly. All I'm asking for is for a normal correlation between the scientific progress and share price...I certainly don't want another year of great scientific progress with an opportunity to add more shares.

Edit: Let me put it another way tmak: You just as me were an investor for the entire 2015...we went through the risk of a partial clinical hold, we went through the risk of the release of 3 and 4 mg single dose data (and not knowing what the rest of the AD data will look like) as well as the ARC-AAT's part A data....what if any of this data would have been bad ? We would probably look now at big losses tmak...and an under $5 share price. Instead we got great data and we're supposed to be satisfied with a 18% loss only. A new investor now takes on a lot less risk than we did at the beginning of 2015, he saved a year of waiting and on top of that he is getting an 18% discount as well....and that is not fair.

T2S

[tmak]

and so we wait for:

1)  partnership
2)  functional cures
3)  positive aat data
4)  lawsuit conclusion

any of these  could/will propel the sp overnight....and while fc's in monarch could take most of the year to determine, a partnership could be announced on any given day, as could aat data and a positive outcome to the frivolous lawsuit.  in the meantime arc 521 will enter phase one testing, monarch will grind on and interim data should be made available.   some time soon the market will come to the same conclusions, and arwr's value will be reflected in the sp.  until then, i will continue to accumulate cheap shares and i will  practice patience and persistence.  

[Think2Succeed]

tmak I want all these to happen as much as you do but I try to remain realistic as well and to learn from the past behaviour of this stock. Your number 3 and 4 won't move the stock or not as much as we hope....if that was the case then the 1 and 2 log KD news plus 7 out of 9 chimps showing immune response should have moved the stock much higher too....I don't see phase 1 ARC-AAT data as more important than the current HBV data. The lawsuit won't move the stock either as that has nothing to do with the progress of the company..it is just a removed nuisance. Number 1 can move the stock if a partnership with good terms for ARWR is achieved....but unfortunately management used the word collaboration in the last CC so I don't see a partnership as a realistic goal for 2016 (for me realistic chances are after Monarch data is in). A collaboration could move the stock too depending on which the collaborator is ...but it will not move it to the same degree as a partnerships with upfront payments, milestones and royalties. Lastly...functional cures are the only things that will certainly move the stock significantly this year...if that happens then we can dream about partnerships, triple digits share price etc etc. Until then though history has taught me to remain cautious.

T2S