My predictions for 2016

[Think2Succeed]

Here's the list with my predictions for 2016:

1. The motion to dismiss will be denied and we will go to trial...no big deal though as ARWR is going to win the case
2. ARC-AAT phase 1 data is going to rock and roll ! I expect about $1-1.5 gain in stock price
3. ARC-AAT is going to be sublicensed in late 2016 or early 2017
4. No buyout or partnership for the HBV program...only a collaboration for one of Monarch's arms...our collaborator is going to be....Roche (RG-7795) !
5. Monarch's ARC 520+ENT+INF arm (cohort 2: E+ genotype B) is going to produce at least 25% FC's
6. Immune responses seen across all trials in patients that are E+ and treatment naive
7. ARC-521 is going to have a >35% FC rate when combined with INF in genotype A&B patients regardless of their E antigen...but that is going to be in late 2017
8. Share price at the end of 2016 if my predictions are true: $22-$25

What's your predictions ?

[qbeing1010]

How do you value the collaboration in your share price prediction for end of 2016?

[Think2Succeed]

I don't give it much value since a collaboration does not involve upfront payments, milestones and royalties (like a partnership does). It also depends of the name of collaborator..if it's a big pharma and it takes over half of the trial costs then we can expect about $1 increase in the share price.

T2S

[dig]

March:

I don’t see much new news for the company. The stock is behaving better now. On positive days for Biotech stocks, it goes up more than many small cap biotech stocks and on down days it does not seem to lose as much.



April:

This is when we will see the first collaboration Announced. My guess is it will be with Roche Pharma. The news of this will have more of a reaction in the stock then any one is prepared for. As long as the hatred for small cap biotech stocks is NOT in full swing. I think the stock will double before May with this announcement. This is a bold call for such a little thing, after all this will do nothing to fortify the cash position. I see this as conformation that Big pharma is indeed interested in ARC-520. The current price $4.41 as I write,this tells me what is blatantly obvious to many of us is not intuitive to the masses. They need a few more pices of the puzzle to see the picture. 





May:

Arrowhead will file for an IND ARC-521. I think we will hear of another collaborative effort. We should see the first patients from the 2001 extension getting to HBsAg negative. I am more focused on this study then Monarch because all the patients were prescreened and ready to be dosed. Monarch had its first patients dosed around January 1st but, we just don’t know how long it will take to complete a cohort.

I think the 2001 Extension was completed around February 1st that would put

Dose 2) February 28th

Dose 3) March 27th. After the 3rd dose the E+ patients should have a KD of about 3 logs.

Dose 4) April 24. By now the immune system should be doing much of the work. Most of the chimps showed an immune response around the 3rd dose

Dose 5) May 22. this is when I think they will announce that a number of patients have reached HBsAg negative. I base this opinion on several factors. Manetta seroconverted for HBeAg after 5th ARC-520 dose and was sustained off-therapy. Based on the single dose studies, it appears that ARC-520 works better in humans than chimps. Finally the human immune system is more advanced.



June:

Dose 6) June 19th this will be the month for ARC-AAT They will announce the phase 1 results and will start the talks with the FDA. We will here of a partnership for a presently unannounced drug. Arrowhead will start talking about the 2006 and 2007 studies.

July:

Dose 7) July 17th. This will be the month the cash Crunch is resolved. The stock price will be sufficient they will do a capital raise. ARC-521 should be in phase 1 testing





August:

Dose 8) August 14th. I think we will see a few of the E- patients start to Get to HBsAg negative. We should also start ARC-520 with interferon Results. Start of Multi-dosing for ARC-AAT. We should see the study design for the First ARC-521 Multi-dose cohorts.



September:

Dose 9) September 11. ARWR will announce the Monarch study will Open locations in China. The patients that are not already at HBsAg Negative in the 2001 study will be moved into the Monarch study.



October:

Dose 10) October 9 ARC-521 starts multi-dosing. I think 521 will roll right into Monarch. The partners that are working with 520 will have first shot at combining with 521



November:

Dose 11) November 6th. The first Functional Cures will be announced.



Dose 12) December 4th. An ARC-F12 IND will be filed. We may see a partner for worldwide distribution of ARC-520/521

I think it will come down to which company has the best drug in combination With ARC-520.

1 thing for sure 2016 will be an interesting year for Arrowhead.



Of course this is my best guess with the information that is currently available. I look forward to seeing how close I am on these predictions.

[Think2Succeed]

Excellent post dig,

You are brave to give such specific catalysts and dates...I'll certainly look forward to see how your predictions will turn out and as long as your prediction #11 will be true the year 2016 is going to be a great one !

T2S

[dig]

March:
“I don’t see much new news for the company. The stock is behaving better now. On positive days for Biotech stocks, it goes up more than many small cap biotech stocks and on down days it does not seem to lose as much.”

I was spot on; of course March was the easy call. I believe the 2001 extension patients have received the 3rd dose on the 27th. I am calling for a double this month ($9.64) on a collaboration announcement. Don’t let me down ARWR.